Analysis

Municipality trend ranking

A snapshot can be misleading. A multi-year trend reveals the direction. Here 290 municipalities are ranked by how much their merit value and teacher certification have changed over recent years. The trend score combines both dimensions.

Source: Kolada (2025–2020)

Summary

290 Municipalities with trend data
105 Clear improvement (score > 5)
75 Clear decline (score < −5)
110 Essentially unchanged

The trend score is composite: change in merit value (points) + change in teacher certification (percentage points × 2). The weighting reflects that a one percentage-point increase in teacher certification historically correlates with approximately a 2-point improvement in merit value. Municipalities with data from at least three measurement points are included.

Note: Rankings show raw merit values without adjustment for pupils' socioeconomic backgrounds. Use SALSA-adjusted values for a fair comparison. Learn more about SALSA →

Top 20 — greatest positive trend movement

# Municipality Merit value change Certification change Trend score
1 Vansbro +22.1 pts (2023–2025) +13.6 pp (2023–2025) +49.3
2 Ockelbo +10.0 pts (2023–2025) +15.7 pp (2023–2025) +41.4
3 Örkelljunga +19.2 pts (2023–2025) +7.4 pp (2023–2025) +34.0
4 Överkalix +31.5 pts (2023–2025) +0.2 pp (2023–2025) +31.9
5 Borgholm +10.1 pts (2023–2025) +10.0 pp (2023–2025) +30.1
6 Eda +22.8 pts (2023–2025) +3.5 pp (2023–2025) +29.8
7 Avesta +13.5 pts (2023–2025) +7.2 pp (2023–2025) +27.9
8 Lessebo +33.2 pts (2023–2025) -2.7 pp (2023–2025) +27.8
9 Emmaboda +25.2 pts (2023–2025) +0.5 pp (2023–2025) +26.2
10 Flen +11.5 pts (2023–2025) +7.3 pp (2023–2025) +26.1
11 Katrineholm +9.0 pts (2023–2025) +8.3 pp (2023–2025) +25.6
12 Hällefors +13.6 pts (2023–2025) +5.5 pp (2023–2025) +24.6
13 Säffle +5.3 pts (2023–2025) +9.6 pp (2023–2025) +24.5
14 Haparanda +27.5 pts (2023–2025) -1.7 pp (2023–2025) +24.1
15 Tierp +18.5 pts (2023–2025) +2.7 pp (2023–2025) +23.9
16 Mörbylånga +6.5 pts (2023–2025) +8.3 pp (2023–2025) +23.1
17 Falköping +10.5 pts (2023–2025) +6.1 pp (2023–2025) +22.7
18 Skinnskatteberg +19.7 pts (2023–2025) +1.3 pp (2023–2025) +22.3
19 Arboga +8.3 pts (2023–2025) +6.5 pp (2023–2025) +21.3
20 Oxelösund +4.5 pts (2023–2025) +8.4 pp (2023–2025) +21.3

Bottom 20 — greatest negative trend movement

# Municipality Merit value change Certification change Trend score
1 Essunga -24.5 pts (2023–2025) -10.0 pp (2023–2025) -44.5
2 Nordanstig -30.6 pts (2023–2025) -1.2 pp (2023–2025) -33.0
3 Bjuv -11.8 pts (2023–2025) -8.9 pp (2023–2025) -29.6
4 Töreboda -19.9 pts (2023–2025) -3.7 pp (2023–2025) -27.3
5 Grästorp -21.7 pts (2023–2025) -2.2 pp (2023–2025) -26.1
6 Övertorneå -20.6 pts (2023–2025) -2.7 pp (2023–2025) -26.0
7 Ånge -24.5 pts (2023–2025) 0.0 pp (2023–2025) -24.5
8 Torsby -19.2 pts (2023–2025) -2.4 pp (2023–2025) -24.0
9 Vara -15.8 pts (2023–2025) -3.8 pp (2023–2025) -23.4
10 Jokkmokk -32.8 pts (2023–2025) +5.1 pp (2023–2025) -22.6
11 Ljusnarsberg -21.2 pts (2023–2025) -0.6 pp (2023–2025) -22.4
12 Ödeshög +5.8 pts (2023–2025) -13.8 pp (2023–2025) -21.8
13 Åsele -12.5 pts (2023–2025) -4.5 pp (2023–2025) -21.5
14 Smedjebacken -3.4 pts (2023–2025) -8.4 pp (2023–2025) -20.2
15 Lindesberg -12.3 pts (2023–2025) -3.8 pp (2023–2025) -19.9
16 Arvidsjaur -11.2 pts (2023–2025) -4.0 pp (2023–2025) -19.2
17 Karlsborg -21.5 pts (2023–2025) +1.2 pp (2023–2025) -19.1
18 Högsby -9.0 pts (2023–2025) -5.0 pp (2023–2025) -19.0
19 Lekeberg -0.2 pts (2023–2025) -9.4 pp (2023–2025) -19.0
20 Tranås -15.9 pts (2023–2025) -1.0 pp (2023–2025) -17.9

Full ranking

Show all 290 municipalities
# Municipality Merit value change Certification change Trend score
1 Vansbro +22.1 pts +13.6 pp +49.3
2 Ockelbo +10.0 pts +15.7 pp +41.4
3 Örkelljunga +19.2 pts +7.4 pp +34.0
4 Överkalix +31.5 pts +0.2 pp +31.9
5 Borgholm +10.1 pts +10.0 pp +30.1
6 Eda +22.8 pts +3.5 pp +29.8
7 Avesta +13.5 pts +7.2 pp +27.9
8 Lessebo +33.2 pts -2.7 pp +27.8
9 Emmaboda +25.2 pts +0.5 pp +26.2
10 Flen +11.5 pts +7.3 pp +26.1
11 Katrineholm +9.0 pts +8.3 pp +25.6
12 Hällefors +13.6 pts +5.5 pp +24.6
13 Säffle +5.3 pts +9.6 pp +24.5
14 Haparanda +27.5 pts -1.7 pp +24.1
15 Tierp +18.5 pts +2.7 pp +23.9
16 Mörbylånga +6.5 pts +8.3 pp +23.1
17 Falköping +10.5 pts +6.1 pp +22.7
18 Skinnskatteberg +19.7 pts +1.3 pp +22.3
19 Arboga +8.3 pts +6.5 pp +21.3
20 Oxelösund +4.5 pts +8.4 pp +21.3
21 Botkyrka +8.0 pts +6.5 pp +21.0
22 Storfors +22.7 pts -1.0 pp +20.7
23 Klippan +11.1 pts +4.6 pp +20.3
24 Finspång +3.4 pts +8.0 pp +19.4
25 Hofors +3.7 pts +7.2 pp +18.1
26 Leksand +4.8 pts +6.5 pp +17.8
27 Kil +17.7 pts -0.1 pp +17.5
28 Skara +8.1 pts +4.6 pp +17.3
29 Karlskoga +7.3 pts +4.9 pp +17.1
30 Sorsele +30.8 pts -7.0 pp +16.8
31 Kristianstad +7.3 pts +4.4 pp +16.1
32 Bräcke +3.7 pts +6.2 pp +16.1
33 Strängnäs -7.3 pts +11.7 pp +16.1
34 Trosa +6.1 pts +4.6 pp +15.3
35 Haninge +1.8 pts +6.7 pp +15.2
36 Eskilstuna +10.0 pts +2.6 pp +15.2
37 Köping +2.5 pts +5.8 pp +14.1
38 Nordmaling +5.9 pts +4.0 pp +13.9
39 Nyköping +4.6 pts +4.5 pp +13.6
40 Nykvarn -7.7 pts +10.5 pp +13.3
41 Älvsbyn -13.2 pts +13.2 pp +13.2
42 Södertälje +4.6 pts +4.2 pp +13.0
43 Upplands Väsby +5.9 pts +3.5 pp +12.9
44 Kungsör -3.0 pts +7.8 pp +12.6
45 Tomelilla +5.6 pts +3.4 pp +12.4
46 Värmdö +3.9 pts +4.2 pp +12.3
47 Aneby +10.7 pts +0.8 pp +12.3
48 Eslöv +3.6 pts +4.3 pp +12.2
49 Degerfors +12.5 pts -0.3 pp +11.9
50 Nora +4.5 pts +3.7 pp +11.9
51 Hallstahammar +6.5 pts +2.7 pp +11.9
52 Hultsfred +1.1 pts +5.3 pp +11.7
53 Norsjö -0.8 pts +6.2 pp +11.6
54 Mora -2.5 pts +7.0 pp +11.5
55 Nynäshamn +3.1 pts +4.1 pp +11.3
56 Fagersta +13.4 pts -1.1 pp +11.2
57 Skövde +6.1 pts +2.4 pp +10.9
58 Hallsberg +4.5 pts +3.2 pp +10.9
59 Karlskrona +3.3 pts +3.7 pp +10.7
60 Söderhamn +14.1 pts -1.7 pp +10.7
61 Göteborg +4.7 pts +2.8 pp +10.3
62 Ljusdal +3.1 pts +3.6 pp +10.3
63 Vaxholm +13.1 pts -1.4 pp +10.3
64 Strömstad +9.3 pts +0.4 pp +10.1
65 Salem +2.5 pts +3.8 pp +10.1
66 Burlöv +10.8 pts -0.5 pp +9.8
67 Rättvik -5.5 pts +7.6 pp +9.7
68 Borlänge +1.5 pts +4.0 pp +9.5
69 Höör +0.6 pts +4.4 pp +9.4
70 Åstorp +7.0 pts +1.2 pp +9.4
71 Munkfors +14.8 pts -2.7 pp +9.4
72 Älmhult +2.1 pts +3.6 pp +9.3
73 Svalöv -1.7 pts +5.4 pp +9.1
74 Ludvika -1.4 pts +5.2 pp +9.0
75 Huddinge +5.9 pts +1.5 pp +8.9
76 Sigtuna +2.2 pts +3.3 pp +8.8
77 Gislaved -4.1 pts +6.3 pp +8.5
78 Vallentuna +5.1 pts +1.6 pp +8.3
79 Åre -8.1 pts +8.1 pp +8.1
80 Östhammar +3.7 pts +2.2 pp +8.1
81 Laxå +7.0 pts +0.4 pp +7.8
82 Hässleholm +1.5 pts +3.0 pp +7.5
83 Hedemora +6.1 pts +0.7 pp +7.5
84 Falun -0.4 pts +3.8 pp +7.2
85 Boxholm +4.8 pts +1.2 pp +7.2
86 Solna +5.5 pts +0.8 pp +7.1
87 Hylte -5.6 pts +6.3 pp +7.0
88 Åtvidaberg +2.2 pts +2.4 pp +7.0
89 Grums -14.9 pts +10.9 pp +6.9
90 Håbo -0.4 pts +3.6 pp +6.8
91 Trelleborg -3.2 pts +4.9 pp +6.6
92 Öckerö -3.8 pts +5.2 pp +6.6
93 Landskrona -0.9 pts +3.7 pp +6.5
94 Ekerö 0.0 pts +2.8 pp +5.6
95 Norrtälje +3.7 pts +0.9 pp +5.5
96 Uppsala +3.1 pts +1.2 pp +5.5
97 Hammarö -4.9 pts +5.1 pp +5.3
98 Pajala -2.5 pts +3.9 pp +5.3
99 Askersund +4.0 pts +0.6 pp +5.2
100 Surahammar +7.4 pts -1.1 pp +5.2
101 Skellefteå -0.4 pts +2.8 pp +5.2
102 Täby +0.2 pts +2.5 pp +5.2
103 Gotland -2.6 pts +3.9 pp +5.2
104 Ronneby -7.9 pts +6.5 pp +5.1
105 Västerås -1.3 pts +3.2 pp +5.1
106 Malmö +0.6 pts +2.2 pp +5.0
107 Tyresö +4.0 pts +0.5 pp +5.0
108 Storuman -6.7 pts +5.8 pp +4.9
109 Västervik +6.3 pts -0.7 pp +4.9
110 Örebro +4.5 pts +0.1 pp +4.7
111 Lomma -0.4 pts +2.5 pp +4.6
112 Upplands-Bro -2.3 pts +3.4 pp +4.5
113 Stockholm +1.9 pts +1.3 pp +4.5
114 Eksjö +2.7 pts +0.9 pp +4.5
115 Vimmerby -3.0 pts +3.7 pp +4.4
116 Laholm +1.2 pts +1.5 pp +4.2
117 Kävlinge +3.0 pts +0.5 pp +4.0
118 Vänersborg -1.5 pts +2.7 pp +3.9
119 Hudiksvall -2.1 pts +3.0 pp +3.9
120 Dals-Ed +8.0 pts -2.1 pp +3.8
121 Vännäs -0.7 pts +2.2 pp +3.7
122 Heby -11.0 pts +7.3 pp +3.6
123 Tidaholm +8.5 pts -2.5 pp +3.5
124 Älvkarleby +4.9 pts -0.7 pp +3.5
125 Ale +4.8 pts -0.7 pp +3.4
126 Borås -2.2 pts +2.8 pp +3.4
127 Östra Göinge -5.3 pts +4.3 pp +3.3
128 Hjo -8.8 pts +6.0 pp +3.2
129 Danderyd +0.2 pts +1.5 pp +3.2
130 Nacka -0.8 pts +2.0 pp +3.2
131 Kramfors -5.1 pts +4.1 pp +3.1
132 Osby +3.8 pts -0.4 pp +3.0
133 Trollhättan -2.2 pts +2.6 pp +3.0
134 Staffanstorp +4.9 pts -1.0 pp +2.9
135 Mölndal +0.6 pts +1.1 pp +2.8
136 Bollnäs -0.8 pts +1.8 pp +2.8
137 Ystad -0.1 pts +1.4 pp +2.7
138 Sotenäs +2.5 pts +0.1 pp +2.7
139 Uddevalla +1.3 pts +0.7 pp +2.7
140 Sala +2.7 pts 0.0 pp +2.7
141 Säter +12.5 pts -4.9 pp +2.7
142 Växjö -1.9 pts +2.3 pp +2.7
143 Olofström -6.4 pts +4.5 pp +2.6
144 Lerum +4.3 pts -0.9 pp +2.5
145 Örnsköldsvik +1.1 pts +0.6 pp +2.3
146 Åmål -15.8 pts +9.0 pp +2.2
147 Luleå +4.5 pts -1.2 pp +2.1
148 Markaryd +11.6 pts -4.8 pp +2.0
149 Linköping -2.1 pts +2.0 pp +1.9
150 Svedala -1.1 pts +1.4 pp +1.7
151 Valdemarsvik +2.2 pts -0.3 pp +1.6
152 Kalmar -1.2 pts +1.4 pp +1.6
153 Helsingborg -5.5 pts +3.5 pp +1.5
154 Krokom -2.2 pts +1.8 pp +1.4
155 Kumla -9.3 pts +5.3 pp +1.3
156 Norrköping -3.1 pts +2.2 pp +1.3
157 Gagnef +6.2 pts -2.5 pp +1.2
158 Norberg -23.7 pts +12.4 pp +1.1
159 Knivsta -4.2 pts +2.6 pp +1.0
160 Herrljunga -8.1 pts +4.5 pp +0.9
161 Filipstad -1.2 pts +1.0 pp +0.8
162 Järfälla -6.0 pts +3.4 pp +0.8
163 Falkenberg +2.2 pts -0.8 pp +0.6
164 Varberg +1.8 pts -0.6 pp +0.6
165 Sollefteå -5.2 pts +2.9 pp +0.6
166 Båstad -4.6 pts +2.5 pp +0.4
167 Gävle -2.4 pts +1.3 pp +0.2
168 Bjurholm -27.8 pts +14.0 pp +0.2
169 Mjölby -6.8 pts +3.5 pp +0.2
170 Lidköping -3.7 pts +1.9 pp +0.1
171 Härjedalen +8.7 pts -4.3 pp +0.1
172 Sundsvall -3.8 pts +1.9 pp 0.0
173 Årjäng -3.7 pts +1.8 pp -0.1
174 Motala -3.7 pts +1.8 pp -0.1
175 Vingåker -12.6 pts +6.2 pp -0.2
176 Kristinehamn -5.7 pts +2.7 pp -0.3
177 Värnamo -5.7 pts +2.7 pp -0.3
178 Simrishamn +4.0 pts -2.2 pp -0.4
179 Kungsbacka -3.9 pts +1.7 pp -0.5
180 Karlshamn -6.1 pts +2.7 pp -0.7
181 Vaggeryd -6.5 pts +2.9 pp -0.7
182 Sandviken -4.4 pts +1.8 pp -0.8
183 Sundbyberg -4.9 pts +2.0 pp -0.9
184 Karlstad -3.2 pts +1.1 pp -1.0
185 Umeå -2.2 pts +0.4 pp -1.4
186 Boden -7.6 pts +3.1 pp -1.4
187 Lund -2.6 pts +0.5 pp -1.6
188 Bengtsfors -12.5 pts +5.4 pp -1.7
189 Enköping +0.1 pts -0.9 pp -1.7
190 Sjöbo -13.6 pts +5.9 pp -1.8
191 Svenljunga -9.4 pts +3.8 pp -1.8
192 Alvesta -7.2 pts +2.7 pp -1.8
193 Halmstad -1.9 pts 0.0 pp -1.9
194 Berg -9.3 pts +3.7 pp -1.9
195 Kiruna -1.7 pts -0.1 pp -1.9
196 Oskarshamn -0.8 pts -0.8 pp -2.4
197 Malung – Sälen +3.5 pts -3.0 pp -2.5
198 Arvika -2.3 pts -0.2 pp -2.7
199 Hörby -9.2 pts +3.1 pp -3.0
200 Höganäs -6.4 pts +1.7 pp -3.0
201 Mellerud -15.8 pts +6.4 pp -3.0
202 Färgelanda -2.9 pts -0.1 pp -3.1
203 Jönköping -4.2 pts +0.4 pp -3.4
204 Vetlanda -8.0 pts +2.2 pp -3.6
205 Sölvesborg -3.4 pts -0.2 pp -3.8
206 Alingsås -4.6 pts +0.4 pp -3.8
207 Skurup +1.3 pts -2.6 pp -3.9
208 Vellinge -0.9 pts -1.6 pp -4.1
209 Bollebygd -1.0 pts -1.6 pp -4.2
210 Forshaga -2.8 pts -0.8 pp -4.4
211 Ljungby -10.0 pts +2.8 pp -4.4
212 Lilla Edet -8.0 pts +1.7 pp -4.6
213 Mark -9.9 pts +2.6 pp -4.7
214 Malå -7.6 pts +1.4 pp -4.8
215 Tranemo -2.1 pts -1.4 pp -4.9
216 Robertsfors +0.8 pts -3.0 pp -5.2
217 Österåker -14.3 pts +4.5 pp -5.3
218 Sollentuna -0.9 pts -2.2 pp -5.3
219 Tjörn -1.8 pts -1.8 pp -5.4
220 Stenungsund -9.6 pts +1.8 pp -6.0
221 Söderköping -11.0 pts +2.5 pp -6.0
222 Härryda -1.5 pts -2.4 pp -6.3
223 Orsa -12.3 pts +3.0 pp -6.3
224 Lidingö -6.0 pts -0.2 pp -6.4
225 Kungälv -4.8 pts -0.9 pp -6.6
226 Nybro -11.4 pts +2.4 pp -6.6
227 Gnesta +6.9 pts -6.8 pp -6.7
228 Tanum -3.8 pts -1.8 pp -7.4
229 Ulricehamn -4.4 pts -1.5 pp -7.4
230 Östersund -6.3 pts -0.7 pp -7.7
231 Piteå -4.3 pts -1.8 pp -7.9
232 Kinda -12.2 pts +2.1 pp -8.0
233 Sävsjö -14.6 pts +3.1 pp -8.4
234 Habo -1.5 pts -3.6 pp -8.7
235 Uppvidinge -14.9 pts +3.0 pp -8.9
236 Gällivare +1.1 pts -5.1 pp -9.1
237 Ängelholm -7.0 pts -1.1 pp -9.2
238 Götene -17.4 pts +4.1 pp -9.2
239 Lysekil -5.0 pts -2.1 pp -9.2
240 Mönsterås -8.0 pts -0.8 pp -9.6
241 Perstorp -3.0 pts -3.5 pp -10.0
242 Gnosjö +1.3 pts -5.7 pp -10.1
243 Orust -6.3 pts -2.0 pp -10.3
244 Lycksele -3.2 pts -3.6 pp -10.4
245 Hagfors -10.7 pts -0.1 pp -10.9
246 Partille -6.7 pts -2.3 pp -11.3
247 Vilhelmina -2.9 pts -4.5 pp -11.9
248 Ragunda -20.6 pts +4.2 pp -12.2
249 Härnösand -9.4 pts -1.6 pp -12.6
250 Sunne -19.1 pts +3.2 pp -12.7
251 Bromölla -18.4 pts +2.8 pp -12.8
252 Gullspång -21.9 pts +4.2 pp -13.5
253 Älvdalen -16.4 pts +1.4 pp -13.6
254 Torsås -13.6 pts -0.2 pp -14.0
255 Ydre +2.7 pts -8.5 pp -14.3
256 Tingsryd -9.5 pts -2.4 pp -14.3
257 Ovanåker -2.2 pts -6.1 pp -14.4
258 Nässjö -6.5 pts -4.0 pp -14.5
259 Mullsjö +0.8 pts -7.7 pp -14.6
260 Vadstena -23.0 pts +4.0 pp -15.0
261 Dorotea +1.5 pts -8.5 pp -15.5
262 Tibro -5.5 pts -5.1 pp -15.7
263 Timrå -9.2 pts -3.5 pp -16.2
264 Munkedal -5.2 pts -5.6 pp -16.4
265 Vårgårda -11.6 pts -2.4 pp -16.4
266 Strömsund -11.6 pts -2.4 pp -16.4
267 Mariestad -14.7 pts -0.9 pp -16.5
268 Arjeplog -25.5 pts +4.4 pp -16.7
269 Vindeln -13.7 pts -1.6 pp -16.9
270 Kalix -19.9 pts +1.5 pp -16.9
271 Tranås -15.9 pts -1.0 pp -17.9
272 Lekeberg -0.2 pts -9.4 pp -19.0
273 Högsby -9.0 pts -5.0 pp -19.0
274 Karlsborg -21.5 pts +1.2 pp -19.1
275 Arvidsjaur -11.2 pts -4.0 pp -19.2
276 Lindesberg -12.3 pts -3.8 pp -19.9
277 Smedjebacken -3.4 pts -8.4 pp -20.2
278 Åsele -12.5 pts -4.5 pp -21.5
279 Ödeshög +5.8 pts -13.8 pp -21.8
280 Ljusnarsberg -21.2 pts -0.6 pp -22.4
281 Jokkmokk -32.8 pts +5.1 pp -22.6
282 Vara -15.8 pts -3.8 pp -23.4
283 Torsby -19.2 pts -2.4 pp -24.0
284 Ånge -24.5 pts 0.0 pp -24.5
285 Övertorneå -20.6 pts -2.7 pp -26.0
286 Grästorp -21.7 pts -2.2 pp -26.1
287 Töreboda -19.9 pts -3.7 pp -27.3
288 Bjuv -11.8 pts -8.9 pp -29.6
289 Nordanstig -30.6 pts -1.2 pp -33.0
290 Essunga -24.5 pts -10.0 pp -44.5

Method and limitations

The trend analysis is based on Kolada historical data for merit value (municipal average, year 9) and teacher certification (behorighetsgrad). The change is measured from the third most recent available data point to the latest data point — typically a 3-year period.

Composite trend score = change in merit value (points) + change in certification (pp) × 2. The weighting is based on the historical correlation between teacher certification and merit value changes in Kolada data.

Important: Changes may be due to demographic shifts, changes in student composition, or statistical coincidences — not solely due to education policy measures. The data serves as a basis for discussion, not a definitive verdict.

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