Analysis

The teacher shortage visualised

Where in Sweden is the shortage of certified teachers greatest? We have analysed 4,639 compulsory schools and found that the teacher shortage varies dramatically — from 75.5% certified in Blekinge Countyto 60.6% in Jämtland County.

March 2026 · Source: National Agency for Education open data, school year 2025/26 · Kolada 2024

Key findings

Of Sweden's 4,639 active compulsory schools,4,343 have data on the proportion of certified teachers. The national average is 72.0%, but behind that figure lie large regional differences and a clear gap between municipal and independent schools.

National average

certified teachers
72.0%
4,343 schools with data

Municipal vs Independent

higher in municipal schools
+7.3 pp
73.1% vs 65.8%

Trend 2019–2024

change in national average
+0.5 pp
69.3% to 69.8%

pp = percentage points. The teacher shortage is unevenly distributed: the counties with the lowest certification rates haveonly 60.6% certified teachers, while top municipalities approach 90%. The gap directly affects the quality of teaching students receive.

Map: Teacher certification by municipality

The map shows the proportion of certified teachers in compulsory school per municipality (Kolada data 2024). Darker colour means higher certification. Hover over a municipality for detailed information.

Counties ranked by certification

The bar chart shows average teacher certification by county, calculated from school-level data.Jämtland County is at the bottom with 60.6% while Blekinge County tops with 75.5%. Click "Show municipal vs independent" to see the breakdown.

Municipal schools vs independent schools

Municipal compulsory schools have on average 73.1% certified teachers, compared to 65.8% for independent schools — a difference of +7.3 percentage points. The difference is found in almost all counties.

Municipal schools

certified teachers (average)
73.1%
3,656 schools

Independent schools

certified teachers (average)
65.8%
687 schools

Trend: How has certification developed?

Over the period 2019–2024, the national average for teacher certification in compulsory school hasincreased by +0.5 percentage points. The change is modest compared to the large regional differences.

Detailed table by county

CountySchoolsCertification %Municipal %Independent %Difference
Jämtland County8560.660.2 (79)67.9 (6)-7.7 pp
Dalarna County15066.066.1 (135)65.1 (15)+1.0 pp
Gävleborg County14266.368.2 (117)56.7 (25)+11.5 pp
Västmanland County11966.668.7 (98)55.1 (21)+13.6 pp
Södermanland County12366.868.5 (95)60.2 (28)+8.3 pp
Norrbotten County15867.368.2 (137)61.3 (21)+6.9 pp
Gotland County3669.469.7 (32)66.4 (4)+3.3 pp
Jönköping County19570.271.4 (181)53.6 (14)+17.8 pp
Örebro County13970.671.2 (120)66.5 (19)+4.7 pp
Kronoberg County12270.871.7 (107)63.0 (15)+8.7 pp
Västernorrland County12871.272.3 (109)64.4 (19)+7.9 pp
Värmland County15372.973.6 (139)65.4 (14)+8.2 pp
Stockholm County76273.175.8 (488)67.3 (274)+8.5 pp
Västra Götaland County79973.173.7 (694)68.7 (105)+5.0 pp
Kalmar County13373.474.7 (121)58.9 (12)+15.8 pp
Skåne County58473.775.6 (467)65.6 (117)+10.0 pp
Västerbotten County15774.875.6 (142)64.8 (15)+10.8 pp
Halland County17775.176.0 (155)69.4 (22)+6.6 pp
Uppsala County14775.276.6 (116)69.6 (31)+7.0 pp
Östergötland County23575.476.3 (204)68.3 (31)+8.0 pp
Blekinge County8075.575.9 (68)72.6 (12)+3.3 pp

pp = percentage points. Number of schools in parentheses. Certification calculated as mean of schools' certifiedTeachersPercent.

Why does teacher certification vary so much?

The teacher shortage is the result of several interacting factors: proximity to teacher education programmes, municipalities' economic conditions, and how attractive it is to live and work in the area. University cities like Uppsala, Linköping and Umeå naturally have higher certification — teacher education students often stay where they trained.

Independent schools generally have lower teacher certification than municipal schools. This may be due to several reasons: independent schools use uncertified teachers as substitutes to a greater extent, they do not have the same ability to offer competitive conditions in shortage areas, and they are overrepresented in major cities where competition for certified teachers is fiercest.

Important caveats

Certification does not directly measure teaching quality. The proportion of certified teachers is a structural measure that co-varies with school results, but the relationship is not straightforward:

  • Subject matching: The figure is one share for all teaching at the school. It does not show in which subjects qualification is missing.
  • Shortage subjects: Mathematics, technology, science and modern languages have chronic shortages. These subjects are hidden in an average.
  • School size: Small schools have greater variation due to fewer teachers.
  • Data quality: The figures are from the National Agency for Education's latest collection (school year 2025/26) and may have changed since.
  • Kolada vs school data: The municipality average in Kolada may differ from school-level data due to different calculation methods.

Methodology

The analysis is based on two data sources: the National Agency for Education's open data (school level, school year 2025/26) and Kolada — the municipality and county database (municipality level, latest available year). County averages are calculated as arithmetic means of schools' certifiedTeachersPercent, where each school weighs equally regardless of student count. Trend data is the municipality average from Kolada (290 municipalities, 2019–2024).

Statistics: school year 2025/26. Source: National Agency for Education open data and Kolada. Processed by Skolkoll.Glossary · About the data.

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