Statistics

Most of us assume that Stockholm and the major cities have the best schools. But colour the map by merit value and the pattern is more nuanced than that — there are municipalities in the interior of Norrland that outperform the suburbs. Switch metric and watch the picture change completely.

2. County map

21 counties with regional patterns in school results.

When we zoom out from individual municipalities to the county level, Sweden's major regional divides emerge. Southern Sweden and the university counties tend to have higher teacher certification — but is it because teachers want to live there, or because the salaries are higher?

3. Every school on the map

Each school a circle — size shows pupil count, colour shows merit value.

Here you can see every individual school at its geographic location. The large circles in the major cities are easy to spot — but zoom into Norrland and you will find small schools that shine with high merit values. Geography is not destiny — there is quality everywhere.

4. Independent vs Municipal

Municipal and independent operators side by side.

Independent schools are not evenly spread across the country. Independent operators are concentrated in urban areas and suburbs where the pupil base is large. In rural areas, municipal schools dominate almost entirely. The data shows that access to independent alternatives varies dramatically depending on where in the country you live.

5. School deserts

Municipalities with at most 2 active compulsory schools marked in red.

Skolkoll defines a school desert as a municipality with at most 2 active compulsory schools. In these municipalities there is virtually no freedom of choice — and if the only school has problems there is no alternative. The question is not whether the school is good or bad — the question is whether there is a school at all.

6. Certification vs Merit value

Each bubble a school. Size = pupil count.

Everyone wants certified teachers. But does certification guarantee better results? The cloud of bubbles shows a clear upward tendency — schools with high teacher certification tend to have higher merit values. But there are plenty of exceptions in both directions. Reality is a cloud formation, not a straight line.

7. Student density vs Results

Pupils per teacher against average national test result.

Smaller classes produce better results — everyone says so. But is it actually true? Look at the cloud of bubbles and search for the slope. The relationship is weaker than most people think. There seems to be a threshold where large classes cause harm — but below that threshold, other factors matter more.

8. Upper secondary schools

Graduation rate against grade points for each upper secondary school.

At upper secondary level we measure two things that should align but often do not: the share who graduate and the grade points they receive. A school where everyone graduates but with low points — is that better or worse than one with high points but high dropout? The answer says more about your values than about the school.

9. Merit value year 9

Distribution curve split by municipal and independent operator.

Here is the question everyone wants answered: do independent schools give higher grades? Compare the two distribution curves. The independent operators have a curve that sits slightly to the right — but is it because they teach better, or because they have pupils with more favourable backgrounds? This chart gives half the answer. The rest requires you to scroll on.

10. National test results

Each dot a school. National tests in Swedish, English and maths.

National tests are the closest we get to an independent measure of what pupils actually know. Grades are set by teachers — tests are externally marked. If these two always agreed, we would not need to worry. That they do not is one of the most important questions in Swedish education debate.

11. Teacher certification by county

21 counties compared — choose 'Compare' for municipal vs independent.

Teacher certification is perhaps the single most important factor that education policy can actually influence. You cannot legislate away poverty or move the university to Gallivare — but you can make the teaching profession attractive enough that the best want to work in the municipalities that need them most. Compare municipal and independent operators and see where the differences are greatest.

12. School size by school type

Overlapping distribution curves for different school types.

The overlapping curves reveal each school type's 'personality'. Compulsory schools form a wide curve spanning everything from village schools with 30 pupils to urban giants with 800. Upper secondary schools cluster around 300–600. After-school centres stay small. Each school type has its own logic — and its own economic reality.

13. Municipality vs national average

Each municipality above or below the national average in merit value.

'Above or below?' — that is the simplest question you can ask about a municipality, and the most misleading. A municipality just below the average can have fantastic schools in a demographically challenging context. A municipality above the average can ride on the education level of its parents. But simple comparisons are irresistible — so here is yours.

14. Municipality ranking

Switch metric and see how the ranking changes.

Everyone loves rankings. But the answer depends entirely on what you measure. Switch from merit value to teacher certification and watch the municipalities swap places. Switch to pupils-per-teacher and the picture changes again. The municipality that 'wins' one ranking can end up at the bottom of the next. That should make us sceptical — but it rarely does.

15. Largest operators

The 20 largest independent operators — pupil count and merit value.

The independent school sector is dominated by a handful of large groups. The five largest have more pupils than many municipalities. Scale can deliver efficiency — but it can also deliver uniformity. The question is not whether the groups are good or bad, but how much of the school landscape they shape without most of us noticing.

16. Municipality profile

Choose municipalities and compare profiles in 5 dimensions.

Every municipality has a unique 'fingerprint' profile. Choose two municipalities you think are similar and see how their polygons differ. Perhaps they have the same merit value but entirely different teacher certification. Perhaps the same independent school share but different numbers of schools. Numbers do not lie — but a single number never tells the whole truth.

17. School type distribution

Concentric rings — school type, operator type, status.

From the centre outward: first school type, then operator, then status. The Swedish school system is more multifaceted than most people think — compulsory schools, upper secondary schools, after-school centres, preschool classes, adult education, municipal and independent, active and dormant. Here you see the entire ecosystem in a single image.

18. Student flows

How are students distributed from operator type to school type to region?

Follow the flow: from operator type, through school type, out to region. The broad streams reveal where pupils actually end up. Stockholm pulls disproportionately — but so does every capital in every country. The interesting question is what happens outside the main streams: the thin lines tell the story of rural reality.

19. Merit value vs NP results

Municipal and independent compared with trend lines.

Here is the elephant in the room: if grades were set fairly, merit value should correlate strongly with national tests. A perfect correlation would produce a narrow diagonal. What we see is wider than that — and the difference between municipal and independent trend lines raises questions the debate prefers to avoid.

20. Socioeconomic correlation

Each bubble a municipality. Size = number of schools, colour = independent school share.

Demographics explain more than pedagogy. That is the uncomfortable truth in Swedish school data. Municipalities with high median income and high education levels almost always have better school results — regardless of how the school is organised. Does that mean school does not matter? No. But it means we underestimate the power of what children bring from home.

21. Group market share

Area = pupil count. Colour = average merit value.

The independent school sector is concentrated in a way that surprises most people. A small group of operators controls a large share of the market. The area shows pupil count — the largest rectangles represent tens of thousands of children. The colour shows merit value. The question every parent should ask: does the group's economics or the children's needs determine which school opens where?

22. Education level

Share of residents with chosen education level per municipality.

University municipalities stand out clearly — Lund, Uppsala, Umea, Linkoping. But the interesting thing is not the peaks but the valleys. In some municipalities fewer than one in five adults have a university education. Their children go to school with different conditions, different role models, different expectations. The map shows where tomorrow's inequality is already built in.

23. Historical trends

National average over time — municipal vs independent.

Where are we heading? The trend lines show the national average year by year, split by municipal and independent operators. Some curves point upward, others flatten out, some are cause for concern. History teaches us that education policy takes time — a reform today will show in results only five to ten years later. What looks like a sudden change is almost always a long, slow process.

24. Income gap

Difference in median income between men and women per municipality.

The gap varies dramatically between municipalities — and it affects schools more than you might think. In municipalities with large income differences, more families tend to be single-parent and have less time for homework support. The children do not notice it in the classroom, but the statistics do. Economic equality and school results are connected — not perfectly, but enough that we should be talking about it.

25. SALSA: Actual vs Expected

Each circle a school — the diagonal marks zero deviation.

The SALSA model calculates the merit value a school should have given its pupils' circumstances. Circles above the diagonal exceed expectations — circles below perform worse than what the pupil composition predicts. The colour shows whether the school is municipal or independent. Is the pattern random — or can you see a systematic tendency?

26. SALSA score distribution

Histogram split by municipal and independent operator.

Where do the deviations cluster? A distribution centred around zero is expected — that is how a regression model works. The interesting thing is whether municipal and independent schools have different shapes and positions. Is one group consistently better or worse at performing above its demographic expectations?

27. SALSA map by municipality

Green = above expected, red = below expected.

Which municipalities deliver more than demographics predict? SALSA adjusts for the pupils' backgrounds — what remains is a measure of what the school contributes beyond expectations. Green municipalities have schools that consistently perform better than the model expects. Red municipalities fall short. The pattern reveals that geography matters — but not in the way most people think.

28. Satisfaction vs Merit value

Each bubble a municipality. Satisfaction (yr 8) against average merit value.

Schools should deliver both good results and pupil well-being — but how well do these align? The chart places each municipality in a satisfaction-merit space. Are there municipalities where pupils are happy but grades are low? Municipalities with high grades but dissatisfaction? The answer adds nuance to the one-dimensional fixation on grades.

29. Municipality trend movement

Which municipalities are improving — and which are declining? Multi-year movement.

A snapshot lies. A multi-year movement tells the direction. The chart shows which municipalities have climbed the most and fallen the most in merit value and teacher certification in recent years. It is not about what starting position they had — it is about whether they are moving in the right direction.

30. Independent school groups vs SALSA

Revenue per pupil against average SALSA score.

Does the group extract profits and deliver results — or is it a trade-off? The chart plots independent school groups' revenue per pupil against the average SALSA score for their schools. Upper right: profitable and better than expected. Lower left: the opposite.

31. Teacher certification vs SALSA

Municipality: certified teachers against SALSA score. Size = compulsory school pupils.

When pupil background is stripped away, the school's own contribution remains. The SALSA score shows which municipalities deliver better or worse results than the model predicts. If teacher certification truly matters, municipalities with high certification should also score higher in SALSA. The chart tests precisely that thesis.

32. Cost vs Results

Municipality: cost per pupil against merit value. Colour = teacher certification.

More expensive schools do not automatically mean better results. The cost per compulsory school pupil varies dramatically between municipalities, but merit values do not follow the same logic. Some municipalities deliver high results at average cost. Others spend the most without lifting results. The colour shows teacher certification — and suggests that the quality of resource use matters more than the budget level itself.

33. Establishment analysis

Where are new schools needed? Municipalities coloured by establishment need.

Some municipalities have too few schools relative to the number of pupils. The map colours each municipality by an establishment need index — red municipalities have high pupil pressure per school compared to the national average, green ones have ample capacity. Filter by school type to see where primary or upper secondary schools are lacking.

34. Over-establishment analysis

Where do too many schools compete for the same pupils?

School choice has resulted in some municipalities having a very high school density. The chart shows each municipality as a bubble — the position reveals pupils per school and number of schools, while the size shows total pupil count. Municipalities with an unusually high number of schools per thousand pupils are flagged as potentially over-established.

35. Demographic time window

Where is the pupil base growing and shrinking fastest?

The future school map is drawn by demographics. This analysis uses historical data to calculate which municipalities have grown or shrunk the most in pupil numbers in recent years. Growing municipalities need to plan for more schools — shrinking ones must manage overcapacity.

36. Socioeconomic overperformance

Which schools perform better than their socioeconomic context?

SALSA measures deviation per school — but this analysis places each school in its municipality's socioeconomic context. The x-axis shows a composite index of income and education level. The y-axis shows merit score. The colour reveals which schools exceed (green) or underperform (red) given their conditions.

37. Cost-effectiveness index

Which municipalities get the most school quality per krona?

Efficiency is not about saving — but about using resources wisely. The chart plots cost per pupil against merit score for each municipality. The four quadrants tell four stories: low cost with high results (the stars), high cost with high results (the privileged), low cost with low results (the disadvantaged) and high cost with low results (the inefficient).

38. Teacher supply map

Where is it hardest to recruit teachers?

The teacher shortage is not evenly distributed. The map combines two dimensions: the share of uncertified teachers and the number of pupils per teacher. Municipalities where both are high have an acute shortage — they glow red. Green municipalities have good supply. The pattern reveals that it is not just rural areas that struggle.

39. Early warning signals

Which schools deviate from the national average?

A single number says little — but red flags are a warning. The analysis identifies five warning signals: low teacher certification, high student-teacher ratio, SALSA underperformance, negative trends and active injunctions from the Schools Inspectorate.

40. Upper secondary chooser

Which programme has the highest exam rate?

Not all upper secondary programmes are equal. The chart compares exam rates within three years for upper secondary schools — grouped by municipality. Which schools deliver the most graduates, and how does it vary between municipalities?

41. Family living analysis

Where is the best place to live with school children?

Choosing where to live is choosing a school. The map shows a composite index for families with children: merit score, teacher certification, satisfaction, school choice, child poverty and preschool are combined. Green municipalities are best from an overall family perspective.

42. Teacher commuting analysis

Where is it easiest for teachers to get hired?

Low certification and many pupils per teacher = easy to get hired. The chart plots each municipality in a two-dimensional space: certification rate against pupils per teacher. Municipalities in the upper left corner have acute teacher shortage — that is where it is easiest to get a job.

See also data and tools for journalists and the glossary for explanations of terms.