Analysis

The teacher shortage visualised

Where in Sweden is the shortage of certified teachers greatest? We have analysed 4,684 compulsory schools and found that the teacher shortage varies dramatically — from 75.1% certified in Östergötlands to 59.8% in Jämtlands.

March 2026 · Source: National Agency for Education open data, school year 2023/24 · Kolada 2024

Key findings

Of Sweden's 4,684 active compulsory schools, 4,366 have data on the proportion of certified teachers. The national average is 71.2%, but behind that figure lie large regional differences and a clear gap between municipal and independent schools.

National average

71.2%

certified teachers

4,366 schools with data

Municipal vs Independent

+8.8 pp

higher in municipal schools

72.6% vs 63.8%

Trend 2019–2024

+0.5 pp

change in national average

69.3% → 69.8%

pp = percentage points. The teacher shortage is unevenly distributed: the counties with the lowest certification rates have only 59.8% certified teachers, while top municipalities approach 90%. The gap directly affects the quality of teaching students receive.

Map: Teacher certification by municipality

The map shows the proportion of certified teachers in compulsory school per municipality (Kolada data 2024). Darker colour means higher certification. Hover over a municipality for detailed information.

Counties ranked by certification

The bar chart shows average teacher certification by county, calculated from school-level data. Jämtlands is at the bottom with 59.8% while Östergötlands tops with 75.1%. Click "Show municipal vs independent" to see the breakdown.

Municipal schools vs independent schools

Municipal compulsory schools have on average 72.6% certified teachers, compared to 63.8% for independent schools — a difference of +8.8 percentage points. The difference is found in almost all counties.

Municipal schools

72.6%

certified teachers (average)

3,675 schools

Independent schools

63.8%

certified teachers (average)

691 schools

Trend: How has certification developed?

Over the period 2019–2024, the national average for teacher certification in compulsory school has increased by +0.5 percentage points. The change is modest compared to the large regional differences.

Detailed table by county

County Schools Certification % Municipal % Independent % Difference
Jämtlands 86 59.8 59.3 (80) 68.8 (6) -9.5 pp
Dalarnas 152 63.1 63.3 (136) 61.6 (16) +1.7 pp
Västmanlands 119 64.6 66.3 (99) 54.8 (20) +11.5 pp
Södermanlands 123 65.2 67.4 (95) 58.4 (28) +9.0 pp
Gävleborgs 141 65.8 68.3 (116) 52.6 (25) +15.7 pp
Norrbottens 159 68.1 69.1 (138) 62.2 (21) +6.9 pp
Gotlands 37 68.1 68.5 (33) 64.0 (4) +4.5 pp
Örebro 140 69.3 70.6 (121) 60.4 (19) +10.2 pp
Kronobergs 122 69.6 71.0 (107) 57.2 (15) +13.8 pp
Jönköpings 196 69.8 71.0 (182) 54.1 (14) +16.9 pp
Kalmar 132 70.9 71.9 (119) 60.7 (13) +11.2 pp
Värmlands 154 71.6 72.5 (140) 61.3 (14) +11.2 pp
Västernorrlands 127 71.6 72.2 (109) 68.2 (18) +4.0 pp
Stockholms 755 72.1 75.7 (481) 64.2 (274) +11.5 pp
Blekinge 81 72.1 73.0 (68) 67.1 (13) +5.9 pp
Västra Götalands 811 72.3 72.9 (707) 67.7 (104) +5.2 pp
Skåne 588 73.6 75.9 (471) 63.7 (117) +12.2 pp
Uppsala 148 74.6 75.6 (117) 70.5 (31) +5.1 pp
Hallands 199 74.6 75.2 (177) 68.9 (22) +6.3 pp
Västerbottens 162 74.7 75.9 (146) 60.7 (16) +15.2 pp
Östergötlands 237 75.1 75.9 (206) 69.2 (31) +6.7 pp

pp = percentage points. Number of schools in parentheses. Certification calculated as mean of schools' certifiedTeachersPercent.

Why does teacher certification vary so much?

The teacher shortage is the result of several interacting factors: proximity to teacher education programmes, municipalities' economic conditions, and how attractive it is to live and work in the area. University cities like Uppsala, Linköping and Umeå naturally have higher certification — teacher education students often stay where they trained.

Independent schools generally have lower teacher certification than municipal schools. This may be due to several reasons: independent schools use uncertified teachers as substitutes to a greater extent, they do not have the same ability to offer competitive conditions in shortage areas, and they are overrepresented in major cities where competition for certified teachers is fiercest.

Important caveats

Certification does not directly measure teaching quality. The proportion of certified teachers is a structural measure that co-varies with school results, but the relationship is not straightforward:

  • Subject matching: A certified teacher may teach subjects outside their certification. The figures do not show whether the teacher is certified in the specific subject they teach.
  • Shortage subjects: Mathematics, technology, science and modern languages have chronic shortages. These subjects are hidden in an average.
  • School size: Small schools have greater variation due to fewer teachers.
  • Data quality: The figures are from the National Agency for Education's latest collection (school year 2023/24) and may have changed since.
  • Kolada vs school data: The municipality average in Kolada may differ from school-level data due to different calculation methods.

Methodology

The analysis is based on two data sources: the National Agency for Education's open data (school level, school year 2023/24) and Kolada — the municipality and county database (municipality level, latest available year). County averages are calculated as arithmetic means of schools' certifiedTeachersPercent, where each school weighs equally regardless of student count. Trend data is the municipality average from Kolada (290 municipalities, 2019–2024).

Statistics: school year 2023/24. Source: National Agency for Education open data and Kolada. Processed by Skolkoll. Glossary · About the data.

All analyses · Visualisations · School library effect · Compare municipalities