Do grades match reality?
If grades were set entirely in line with pupils' actual knowledge, merit value and national test results should correlate perfectly. The chart shows that this is not the case — and the difference between municipal and independent schools raises questions.
The trend line for independent schools sits somewhat above the trend line for municipal schools at the same national test result. This means that independent schools tend to award higher grades relative to their pupils' national test performance.
The interpretation is contested. Critics argue it demonstrates grade inflation among independent operators. Proponents counter that grades should reflect more knowledge than what national tests measure, and that independent schools may be better at supporting pupils in other dimensions.
Regardless of interpretation, the spread shows that grades and national test results do not always align. This has consequences for pupils' ability to apply to upper secondary school on equal terms — a central promise of the Swedish school system.
Statistics: academic year 2023/24. Source: Skolverket open data, Kolada and SCB. Processed by Skolkoll. Glossary · About the data.