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The link between income and school results
Demographics explain more than pedagogy — the uncomfortable truth.
The strongest pattern in Swedish school statistics is not about pedagogy, teacher numbers or school type — it is about what children bring from home. Three visualisations show how deeply socioeconomic factors shape school results.
Socioeconomic background and merit score
Municipalities with high median income and high education levels almost always have better school results. The bubble chart shows the correlation — and how the independent school share (colour) co-varies with income level.
Each bubble a municipality. Size: number of schools. Colour: independent school share.
Open Socioekonomisk korrelation fullscreen →Education level — university municipalities shine
The map shows the proportion of residents with higher education per municipality. The pattern is striking — Lund, Uppsala, Umeå and the metropolitan suburbs stand out. In other municipalities, fewer than one in five adults have a university degree. Their children's conditions look entirely different.
Education level per municipality — the darker, the higher the share with higher education.
Open Utbildningsnivå fullscreen →The SALSA map — who delivers above expectations?
When we adjust for pupils' backgrounds using the SALSA model, a different landscape emerges. Municipalities that rank high in raw merit scores may land near zero — their results are explained by demographics. And municipalities with modest merit scores can glow green: their schools make a difference.
Green: schools perform above expectations. Red: below expectations. Adjusted for pupil background.
Open SALSA-karta per kommun fullscreen →Does this mean school does not matter? Absolutely not. But it means we must be honest about what school can and cannot compensate for. The green municipalities on the SALSA map — those performing better than demographics predict — show that it is possible to make a difference. It requires skilled teachers, wise principals and a municipality that prioritises education.
Expectations on schools as societal equalisers must, however, be realistic. The great equalisation happens outside school walls — in housing policy, labour market policy and social interventions.